Navigating Tariffs and Trade Tensions: Insights from Industry Veterans

The U.S. coffee industry is navigating one of its most challenging periods in over a century. In our recent U.S. Women in Coffee webinar, Phyllis Johnson (BD Imports, Coffee Coalition for Racial Equity) and Rob Stephen (Covoya Specialty Coffee) brought their combined 61 years of experience to help make sense of current market pressures and chart a path forward.

The Current Reality

The coffee industry hasn't seen tariffs like these since the 1800s. The 50% tariff on Brazil has been particularly disruptive, redirecting 40% of Brazil's coffee exports from the U.S. to Europe and Asia. Meanwhile, the market has surged from $2 to over $4.20 per pound, driven by coffee shortages in key markets. Add climate change reducing yields and the postponed EU Deforestation Regulation creating trade flow disruptions, and the result is historic market turbulence.

"Coffee is resilient, but not many people are talking about it in the way we should," Johnson shared. "Fear can harm our ability to move forward in our businesses." She emphasized that smaller roasters and importers feel the impact most acutely, yet these companies often lead in inclusive programming and direct producer relationships.

Five Key Strategies for Adaptation

1. Diversify Your Sourcing Look beyond traditional origins. Johnson's recent trip to Brazil's Amazon revealed surprisingly complex robusta coffees that challenge industry assumptions. Climate pressures on traditional arabica regions make origin diversification essential.

2. Reformulate and Simplify Brazilian coffee has long served as a cost-effective blend component. Reformulation may be necessary, but Stephen also advises simplification: "Focus on a few things you can do really well and ride the storm out."

3. Communicate Transparently "There couldn't be a better time to raise the price of coffee," Johnson noted. Consumers are seeing coffee price stories everywhere. Use this moment to educate customers about supply chain realities and the value you provide.

4. Stay Nimble with Pricing The market is moving quickly. Be prepared to adjust pricing as conditions change—this is unfamiliar territory for many, but necessary.

5. Preserve Relationships Martell Mason of Sepia Coffee in Detroit exemplifies commitment: despite tariffs, he continues sourcing from Black producers in Brazil because those relationships are central to his mission of telling local community stories.

Finding Opportunity in Crisis

Both speakers encouraged perspective-taking. What new consumption patterns might emerge? Could this help consumers discover new flavor profiles? Might we learn to value previously overlooked origins?

"This time period creates an opportunity to think about where we are and what is happening," Johnson reflected. "In the midst of challenges, there are some real interesting things to hold on to."

Johnson also posed a powerful question from her early coffee days: Why don't producers recognize their power when they have the product everyone needs? "The challenges open our eyes to that," she said. "At the end of the day, if there's no coffee—who's holding the real power?"

Moving Forward

Stephen was realistic about advocacy: "Act like tariffs are here to stay and be pleasantly surprised if they're not." But that doesn't mean giving up. As Johnson stated: "I'm working as if they're not even here, because if I actually look at the tariffs, I would probably not want to continue the work I started."

The coffee industry has weathered challenges before. The roasters who emerge strongest will maintain commitments, communicate transparently, stay nimble, and create value even in constrained circumstances.